Israel and Norway: An Icy Relationship

Norway is seen by many as one of the most hostile European countries toward Israel. But the government in Oslo is veering between demands that it toughen its line against Israel and its actions in Gaza – and the fact that Norway is a major arms exporter

Published in Haaretz: https://www.haaretz.com/world-news/europe/2024-04-11/ty-article-magazine/.premium/israel-and-norway-a-schizophrenic-relationship/0000018e-c7a3-dc93-adce-eff3a37e0000

In recent months, some Israelis have declared Norway the European country most hostile to Israel. This theory is largely based on the policy of Norwegian Foreign Minister Espen Barth Eide, whose term began only a few days after the October 7 Hamas attacks. Barth Eide, a member of the Labour Party, is doing his second stint as foreign minister for the second time, having served in the role in 2012 and 2013. He has also briefly served as defense minister and climate and environment minister.

The list of Israeli grievances against him and his government is long. First came a report that Barth Eide's ministry had prevented King Harald V from sending a condolence letter to Israel after October 7 – because in Norway, the king isn't authorized to make declarations concerning "victims of a political conflict."

This was followed by a condemnation of Israel two weeks later at an international conference in Cairo. Norway's decision not to recognize Hamas as a terror organization also drew anger. In addition, Norway insisted on continuing to transfer money to the United Nations Relief and Works Agency, the UN agency assisting Palestinian refugees, while several other countries halted their support in response to reports that some of its employees had been involved in the October 7 attacks.

Norway not only continued to transfer money but initiated a campaign to defend UNRWA in other countries. Meanwhile, Norway has been active in the lawsuit against Israel in the International Court of Justice over the occupation of the West Bank and East Jerusalem, which is separate from the South African suit accusing Israel of genocide.

Espen Barth Eide on a Stockholm visit, June 2024, photo: David Stavrou

"We are friends of Israel," says the foreign minister, clarifying his position in an interview. "We always have been and we will continue to be. Sometimes good friends need to give good advice, but we are in no way hostile to Israel. We have always tried to help Israel live in peace and security." When asked to explain why Norway is nevertheless seen by many in Israel as hostile, he says that despite the friendship, his country can disagree with the Israeli government.

"We condemned the attack by Hamas on October 7 and we recognize Israel's right to defend itself against terrorism," he says, "but we also said that, like any other country, Israel must obey the laws of war within the international humanitarian laws of the Geneva Convention. Our criticism was that some of the military tactics that Israel used, and the de facto partial blockade on the Gaza Strip that prevented food, electricity, and necessary means of life from the Gaza population, were very problematic. This is not hostility towards Israel; it's criticism towards certain elements of the government's policy."

Among the issues Barth Eide mentions are statements by Israeli cabinet ministers who "gave the impression, which is probably wrong, that Israel wants to expel the Palestinians from Gaza. There have been such statements in Israel and they are very problematic when they come from government ministers."

Although several countries stopped transferring funds to UNRWA, Norway continued to transfer funds and demanded that other countries do so too. Do you not believe the Israeli authorities who reported that UNRWA employees were involved in the October 7 attack, or do you think this is not a sufficient reason to stop funding the organization?

"Our decision is not based on a lack of trust in the Israeli claim. Although we haven't seen evidence, that's not the point, because it may indeed be true. It may be that amongst 13,000 employed in Gaza, there were some who were involved with Hamas and even in the terrorist attack. This is terrible, unacceptable and it requires an investigation, we said this to the UN Secretary-General Guterres and to [UNRWA Commissioner-General Philippe] Lazzarini.

"But we did not agree that if this is true, all funding should be cut," he says. "This is not how to react to transgressions or crimes inside organizations. You don't close the organization, you look for the criminals. If someone in the Oslo police force is arrested on suspicion of murder, I will not shut down the police but arrest the suspect. We are happy to see that there are now countries that have changed their position on this – Australia, Denmark, Sweden, and Canada, for example, as well as the European Commission. It's not that we don't believe Israel, but we don't think that all Palestinians should be punished because of it."

Regarding UNRWA as a whole, Barth Eide does not accept claims that the organization is problematic and that aid for Palestinians should flow through other organizations instead. "A vast majority of the other international organizations operating in the region say that it's not possible to replace UNRWA in the short term," he says, "because they are the backbone for all humanitarian activities in Gaza, so all organizations are coordinating with them."

In November you declared, "We were clear in stating that Hamas should be seen as a terror organization." Is this, as opposed to the past, now Norway's official policy, including when it comes to enforcing the law, economic sanctions, etc.?

"The terrorist attack on October 7 was clearly a terrorist attack and it was carried out by Hamas, so in this context they carried out a very grave terrorist act. However, we have a standing position that maintains some kind of contact with all the relevant groups. This does not mean that we accept their goals or their policies, but we think that if we are trying to contribute to a cease-fire between the Israeli army and Hamas, someone has to talk to Hamas. This is not an endorsement of Hamas, but only an acknowledgment that they exist.

"The way to weaken Hamas is to develop an alternative path to a Palestinian statehood. People who contributed to the division of Palestinian society served Hamas and those who did not want progress. We do not want a Palestine under the control of Hamas, but a Palestine who recognizes Israel under the control of other Palestinians who recognize Israel and its right to life and security."

So are you in contact with Hamas?

"Yes, we are in contact with Hamas, as we are in contact with Hezbollah, with the Houthis, and everybody else in the neighborhood. And that is why we didn't impose the same sanctions that other countries imposed –but this should not be understood as endorsement of their goals and policies." Barth Eide adds, without specifying exactly to whom he is referring, that "There are people in the world who criticize us for this in public, but are actually happy that this is the case, because someone has to maintain these contacts".

What is your current position regarding the South African lawsuit in The Hague and its results?

"I commended the fact that Israel decided to respond to the lawsuit. We did not respond to the initiative itself, but given that the lawsuit exists, it's good that Israel responded, it's good that it recognizes the authority of the court and it's clearly its right to defend itself against the accusations. The court did not conclude that there is a genocide here, but that there are sufficient elements that may constitute a violation of the Convention on the Prevention of Genocide, and Israel should respond and inform the court what steps it is taking to comply with the limitations applicable to a country at war. It isn't illegal to go to war in self-defense, but there are laws on how to do it.

"There is of course another ICJ case dealing with the Israeli occupation. Unlike the genocide case, in the occupation case, we have actually intervened." Indeed, Norway was one of 50 countries that testified before the court on the matter in late February. "Norway clearly distances itself from Israeli settlers' displacement of and violence against Palestinians on occupied land," Barth Eide says. "The settlements are illegal according to international law… the injustice the Palestinians are being subjected to must stop."

Retail policy

Norway's policy toward Israel also has an economic aspect. Its Foreign Ministry recently issued a warning to Norwegian companies "not to engage in business cooperation or trade that serves to perpetuate the illegal Israeli settlements." Regarding this topic, Barth Eide was quoted in the statement as saying "Norway has long maintained that Israel's settlement policy in the West Bank, including East Jerusalem, is in violation of international law, including international humanitarian law and human rights, and undermines the prospects of achieving a future Palestinian state and a peaceful resolution of the conflict."

The statement said the recommendation to Norwegian companies was issued against the backdrop of swelling settlement expansion, as well as "increased settlement violence against the Palestinians."

The minister said in the statement that the "Norwegian business community has sought advisory guidelines from the Norwegian authorities. This recommendation makes it clear that Norwegian companies should be alert to the fact that engaging in any economic or financial activity in the illegal Israeli settlements could put them at risk of contributing to violations of international humanitarian law and human rights."

This policy has already had practical consequences. "A week ago, Norway's foreign minister sent an 'information letter' to the Norwegian Confederation of Business and made it clear that doing anything that would benefit organizations that contribute to the illegal occupation in Israel is not in keeping with Norwegian policy," says Leif Knutsen, the media coordinator for Norway's Jewish community. "He also sent this letter to Vinmonopolet, Norway's government-owned alcoholic beverage retailer monopoly. Vinmonopolet then immediately called for an emergency board meeting, which decided to take all wines from the West Bank and the Golan Heights off the shelves."

Knutsen says that this step may be illegal in the context of European Union or World Trade Organization rules, especially in the case of the Golan Heights. "It's a policy change that Barth Eide dictated from his own desk, not via the cabinet or the parliament, as foreign policy conducted via retail," says Knutsen. "One of the results of this is that in practice, Jews in Norway who want wine [that] is kosher for Pesach will find it hard to get hold of it."

Barth Eide clarifies that "Vinmonopolet can import other Israeli wines if it chooses to," and adds: "We have economic relations with Israel and we want to continue to maintain them. But we have been arguing for years that our economic relations with Israel should be with the Israel within the 1967 borders. This is not new. Now, we are strengthening our advice to Norwegian businesses – feel free to buy and sell in Israel, but not in what fuels the occupation, which I think everyone, except the Israeli government, recognizes is illegal.

"This is not a very radical policy," he says. "But [it exists] to be consistent with our own policy of not financially contributing to human rights violations and violations of international law. We do not go into the specifics, we give general advice. So it was the board of Vinmonopolet who made this decision."

In spite of all that, it seems that the Norwegian economy isn't paying a particularly high price for the government's moral stance. Trade relations with Israel haven't slowed dramatically, and the calls for a boycott of Israel are more symbolic than concrete.

According to Mette Johanne Follestad, president of the Norwegian-Israeli Chamber of Commerce, "For decades, Norway's main export to Israel [has been] fish. More than 80 percent of all imported salmon to Israel is from Norway. To a much smaller extent, Norway also exports metals and paper. Israel's main export to Norway is agricultural products – i.e., fruits and vegetables. Israel also exports to Norway technological products such as computer items. Those two sectors cover most of the Israeli imports to Norway."

She adds that despite political tensions, Norwegian fish exports to Israel have continued to grow in recent years. Exports from other industries have not increased for some time, however. "The political climate in Norway regarding Israel is not helpful for the promotion of business and especially for initiating new lines of trade. It seems that the anti-Israel sentiment has created a reluctance to develop new business relations with Israel.

"Even so, some trade continues to grow. In 2022-2023, Israeli imports to Norway increased from 1.649 billion kroner (570 million shekels) to 1.801 billion, reaching record figures in both years. Norwegian exports to Israel were also at a record level in 2022 at 2.644 billion krone. Unfortunately, Norwegian exports to Israel decreased to 2.313 billion kroner in 2023."

In addition to the recommendation of the Norwegian government to boycott Israeli products from the West Bank, Follestad also notes that universities in Norway are calling for an academic boycott against Israel, although the Norwegian government is against it. Knutsen adds that Norway has seen many calls for various types of boycotts against Israel. In Norwegian academia, for example, some universities have severed ties with academic institutions from Israel. One example is Oslo Metropolitan University, commonly known as OsloMet, which decided not to continue a student exchange program with the University of Haifa. "This is a case where the institution's board of directors made the decision," says Knutsen. "They claim that it's not a boycott but a decision not to continue a program, but this is a game of semantics."

Knutsen sees the decision as a clear violation of fundamental academic freedom that was meant to appease activists wishing to silence anyone disagreeing with them. According to reports, OsloMet is not alone, with the University of South-East Norway deciding to end its academic and research collaborations with the Hadassah College of Technology in Jerusalem over the war in Gaza.

The boycotting isn't limited to academia. Knutsen says there has been a flood of calls for boycotts of Israeli products in recent months. Some trade unions and local municipalities, including Oslo, have called for boycotts or announced them. "They're very careful to say that they're not boycotting Israel, they're only boycotting organizations and cooperation that contribute to the settlements, particularly in the West Bank," she says. "However, it's not always clear what exactly that means and what it is that they're not buying. It seems like virtue signaling for a domestic audience."

When it comes to big money, however, Norway is in no rush to cut off every investment that could somehow be connected to the occupation and the settlements. On this subject, it's interesting to consider Norway's Oil Fund, which invests the surplus revenue from the country's oil sector in what has become the largest sovereign wealth fund in the world. The fund, which holds about $1.5 trillion, has previously withdrawn investments in Israeli companies. However, according to various reports, it still has investments in some 70 Israeli companies totaling billions of dollars. Now it's examining whether to withdraw investments from companies connected to the occupation and settlements, mainly entities like Israeli banks and financial institutions.

"This is discussed widely here," says Barth Eide. "Our recommendations are also relevant to investments in the Oil Fund. The ethical committee of the fund is looking into the matter. It's complicated, because, for example, when there is ownership in a bank, the bank may have activities both in Israel and in the occupied territories, so it's complicated, it's a question of to what grade, and the government doesn't go into the details of every portfolio. The fund has a board of directors and it also has a wider management and an ethics committee. They are the ones who decide."

Sell and forget

In spite of the many steps aimed at pressuring Israel, there are voices in Norway arguing that the government isn't doing enough to oppose Israel and support the Palestinians. Pro-Palestinian organizations say the Norwegian arms industry, a large part of which is government-owned, has found ways of bypassing the prohibition against selling weapons to countries at war. Could Norway be trying to enjoy the best of both worlds, portraying itself as the enthusiastic defender of the Palestinians while avoiding missing out on the profits made from its relationship with Israel?

"There is a clear definition of what a Norwegian weapon is," says Barth Eide. "It's a weapon that is manufactured in Norway or at least the main component is manufactured in Norway. This is an international definition. In this sense, it's forbidden to export Norwegian weapons to countries that are at war like Israel and we have no reason to believe that there has been violation of this." However, the foreign minister clarifies that since Norway has a large arms industry, Norwegian companies also own companies abroad –and here, the government's control is more limited. The same is true of other countries.

"Besides, there are also joint projects in which we produce parts for weapons made by other countries," says Barth Eide. "For example, we manufacture some minor parts for F-35 aircraft. Norwegian laws do not apply here because it would simply create a situation where international defense cooperation would be impossible." Barth Eide says Norway doesn't sell weapons to Israel and that he has called on other countries to follow its example to ensure there is no indirect complicity in what potentially may constitute genocide.

However, some say that Norwegian companies, including at least one that is half-owned by the government, are bypassing this government policy. The online daily magazine Verdens Gang reported in November that Norwegian-produced components may be used in missiles that Israel is firing in Gaza. The publication reported that since Norway allows the exportation of weapons components to NATO countries like the U.S., the parts could be used to assemble weapons exported to Israel according to American regulations.

That's how, according to the newspaper, Chemring Nobel is one of the manufacturers of rocket fuel for Hellfire missiles, which the U.S. supplies to Israel for use in the war in Gaza. Reports that this company produces rocket fuel and explosives for missiles used by the Israel Defense Forces aren't new and have appeared in various Norwegian media outlets in the past.

In response to the Verdens Gang report, Chemring Nobel's CEO said he couldn't rule out the possibility that Norwegian components are included in the weapons systems used in Gaza, Ukraine, or other places. This is because several of Norway's allies permit the export of defense products to Israel, in contradiction with Norwegian export policy.

The Nordic Ammunition Company (aka Nammo), another Norwegian company, has also been accused of selling weapons to Israel. Ownership of Nammo is divided between the Norwegian government and a Finnish company named Patria, itself half-owned by a Norwegian company whose largest stockholder is the government. In December, the Norwegian public broadcaster reported that pro-Palestinian activists had blocked the entrance to the company's factory in Raufoss, saying that "Nammo's weapons are helping to kill Palestinians in Gaza." According to the demonstrators, M141 shoulder-fired missiles exported by Nammos' factory in Arizona to Israel are being used in Gaza. The company denied the claims, saying the weapons were sold to the U.S. military up until 10 years ago, which was the extent of its involvement.

In response to a request for comment, a Nammo spokesperson wrote: "We have also seen media reports about U.S.-made Nammo products in Israel. Given that sales of these products took place several years ago and were made to U.S. authorities, we're not in a position to confirm reports of later transfer from the US to Israel, nor are we privy to knowledge about which weapons or materiel the Israeli military uses."

Asked whether there is oversight over the use of the weapons parts the company exports to other countries (such as by means of an End-User Certificate), the spokesperson wrote: "Nammo is subject to export control laws in the countries where we have operations, including Norway, which does not permit exports of Norwegian-produced products to Israel. For export license requests to countries where exports from Norway are permitted, end-user documentation or certificates are normally part of the list of required documents."

Chemring Nobel declined to respond to a request for comment.

Mediation and boycott

"Trends in International Arms Transfers, 2023," the latest edition of the annual report by the respected independent watchdog Stockholm International Peace Research Institute provides context regarding Norway's arms industry. The think tank is dedicated to research into conflicts, armaments, arms control, and disarmament. Its publications are considered highly reliable sources on the global arms trade, although the institute acknowledges that complete information on deals in the field is hard to obtain. In the 2023 report, Norway is 19th on its list of the 25 largest exporters of major arms – all the more notable because of the country's small population of 5.5 million. According to the report, imports of major arms by European countries increased by 94 percent – nearly double – in 2014-18 and 2019-23.

More than half of European arms imports in 2019-23, 55 percent, were from the U.S., up from 35 percent in 2014-18. Arms imports to countries in Asia, Oceania, and the Middle East also increased significantly in 2019-23. The top arms importers in this period were India, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Ukraine, Pakistan, Japan, Egypt, Australia, South Korea, and China. Israel was 15th on the list. Almost 70 percent of its arms imports were from the United States – the world's top arms exporter, whose total arms exports rose 17 percent. Russia's exports, in contrast, fell 53 percent, losing its spot as the second-largest arms exporter to France and dropping to third place. The U.S., France, and Russia were followed by China, Germany, Italy, Britain, Spain, and Israel (in ninth place).

Countries in the Middle East accounted for 30 percent of arms imports in 2019-23. Saudi Arabia, the world's second-largest arms importer, received 8.4 percent of global arms imports during this period. With a global share of 7.6 percent, arms imports by Qatar increased 396 percent during that timeframe. The United States is the region's arms supplier, accounting for 52 percent of Middle East arms imports; following it are France (12 percent), Italy (10 percent,) and Germany (7.1 percent).

Norway shouldn't be on the list at all, since its regulations prohibit arms exports to countries in a state of war. Therefore, the countries leading the list of imports from Norwegian companies in this field are the United States, Ukraine, and Lithuania. After Russia's invasion of Ukraine and given Norway's special interest in helping to repel it, the Norwegian government passed a resolution allowing direct arms sales to Ukraine. Also, Norwegian law allows the provision of military aid to countries at war, as opposed to the sale of weapons for commercial purposes.

"The defense and weapons market in Norway is highly regulated," Nicholas Marsh, a senior researcher at the Oslo Peace Research Institute, says. "The Ministry of Foreign Affairs issues export permits and customs checks the products that cross the border. The trading partners in this area are mainly NATO countries and [other] developed and democratic countries, such as Australia. The main principle according to which export licenses are granted was already formulated in the late 1950s, in the declaration of the Norwegian Parliament according to which it is forbidden to sell weapons or ammunition to areas that are at war, under threat of war, or in civil war. Beyond that, Norway is also subject to the International Arms Trade Control Treaty and EU guidelines." Although Norway is not an EU member, it has accepted the EU's guidelines in this field.

"Norway's defense and weapons industry doesn't have a huge effect on the national economy. Obviously, it's much less important than oil and gas in terms of Norway's gross domestic product. However," Marsh adds, "Norway doesn't produce much. For example, unlike Sweden, we don't have a large high-tech industry, so in terms of production and employment, [the defense] sector is important. There are two major companies, Nammo and Kongsberg, both partly owned by the Norwegian government."

What about Norwegian companies with subsidiaries in other countries? Are they subject to Norwegian law, or to the laws of the countries in which they manufacture the arms?

"When it comes to subsidiaries, things get complicated. Hypothetically, if a Norwegian company buys a company abroad, Norwegian regulations don't apply to it. It only applies to products that leave Norway. However, Norwegian export regulations can be applied if a product that is manufactured in, say, the United States, uses parts that were made in Norway or even uses software or technical plans [that] are Norwegian intellectual property."

When Norway exports arms, is it considered standard to demand an end-user certificate?

"Like other countries, Norway also uses end-user certificates, but more important are the conditions of sale documents. This is how companies define, among other things, who they allow their products to be sold to. It is not only a matter of maintaining human rights, it is also a commercial matter. But in the case of NATO countries, Norway has repeatedly made it clear that it does not request end-user certificates. This is a political statement and it has been repeated over the years.

"Thus, since Norway can sell to France, the United States, and the United Kingdom, for example, and since it does not require an end-user certificate from these countries that export to countries like Saudi Arabia, the situation is that the government can claim that there are no weapons in countries at war that have 'Made in Norway' on them, but It's certainly possible that there are weapons that have Norwegian parts or are produced by subsidiaries of Norwegian companies. It should be remembered that the arms industry is partially owned by the government, which has both an economic and a political interest here, so there is a balance between principled considerations and practical consideration," Marsh says.

"This has characterized Norway for a long time," Marsh adds, summing up what he calls Norway's dualistic nature. "The Nobel Peace Prize is awarded here and there is political emphasis on peace talks, diplomatic efforts, solidarity, and humanitarian activity. But on the other hand, Norway has been a NATO member from the very beginning, and since World War II it has a strong military which is part of a military alliance that opposes Russia. As a small country, its interest is to promote peace, but it has never been a pacifist country."

When Barth Eide is asked about the future of Israel-Norway relations, he says that although there are ups and downs, his country still formally has a central role in the region because it's the chair of the Ad Hoc Liaison Committee, the body that coordinates international economic aid to the Palestinian Authority. Established in 1993, it has 16 members, led by Norway and sponsored by the United States and the European Union.

"After a cease-fire, this will again be the key body for discussing the coordination of donations to build the Palestinian Authority," Barth Eide says. "That is why we worked with the Israeli government to find a solution to the problem of the clearance revenues collected by Israel on behalf of the Palestinian Authority. This shows that we can still work with Israel and with Ramallah to solve problems." This is a reference to the temporary arrangement facilitated by Norway between Israel and the Palestinian Authority, in which Norway serves as an intermediary for the portion of tax and customs revenues that Israel has withheld since October 7.

In a broader context, Barth Eide still holds to the policy he held in the past. "I believe and have believed for many years that the best path to peace is an agreement with the Palestinians," he says, "not with Hamas, of course, but with the Palestinian Authority, with Fatah and the PLO. Israel will be more successful in its attempt to be both a state for Jews and a democratic state if it has a Palestinian state by its side. Everything we do on this issue is intended to end suffering but also to establish a Palestinian state that is run by a legitimate authority after an agreement. This is a goal that is good for both the Israelis and the Palestinians."

Follestad, the president of the Norwegian Israeli Chamber of Commerce, stresses that any boycott, including one only on Israeli products from the West Bank, would be primarily damaging to Norway's position as an honest broker. "Ever since the Oslo Accords were negotiated in our country, Norway has tried to be a mediator and bring the sides closer to peace," she says. "By boycotting Israeli products from the West Bank, which according to the Oslo Accords is still legally under Israeli jurisdiction, the Norwegian government, by not respecting the signed agreements, is itself violating the spirit of the Oslo Accords. Accordingly, Norway's opinion may no longer be respected by Israel, and Norway may become irrelevant as a mediator in the conflict."

Israel's New Swedish Friends Are the Wrong Crowd

As Israelis are caught up in domestic politics, Likud activists are making far-right friends and changing the country’s foreign policy.

Published in "Haaretz": https://www.haaretz.com/opinion/2023-09-24/ty-article-opinion/.premium/israels-new-swedish-friends-are-the-wrong-crowd/0000018a-c651-da14-a1eb-de5be0620000

STOCKHOLM – Instead of triggering a historic normalization with yet another Arab country, Israel’s announcement of Foreign Minister Eli Cohen’s meeting with his Libyan counterpart led to political embarrassment in Jerusalem, riots in Tripoli and the Libyan minister fleeing the country for her life. Some people claim that this was the result of opportunistic and amateurish behavior.

But if we divert our gaze from North Africa to Europe, we get suspicious that the problem lies not with the Foreign Ministry’s errors (if this indeed was an error) but with its successes.

Three months before Cohen met with the Libyan minister, he visited Stockholm. This wasn't a routine visit either. Cohen became the first Israeli foreign minister to visit Sweden in over 20 years. The trip lasted only 24 hours and included just a handful of meetings that were kept on a very low profile. Not that anyone expected a red carpet and marching bands, but the two countries held no public events, ceremonies or receptions, and the meeting between Cohen and his Swedish counterpart, Tobias Billström, was kept secret until it was over.

One reason for the uncharacteristic restraint is that the two governments are in an unprecedented situation. Jerusalem is advancing processes that are filling the streets with protesters, not only in Israel but anywhere in the world where a cabinet member visits. The Swedish government, meanwhile, is dependent on the Sweden Democrats party, which started out as a neo-Nazi party that up to 30 years ago was led by skinheads. Now this outfit defines itself as “nationalist and social-conservative,” and on the back of an agreement with parties such as Billström’s Moderate Party, it sets the country’s agenda.

Israel’s traditional policy is to refrain from any contact with such parties, not just because of their Nazi roots but because in recent years leaders and members of the Sweden Democrats and its counterparts across Europe have been disseminating conspiracy theories as well as racist, antisemitic and Islamophobic propaganda. Several of them have been implicated in violent incidents, not exactly the kind of thing Israel wants to be associated with.

But it's not so simple. If, as Cohen claims, he and his Swedish counterpart discussed the strengthening of political, economic and military ties, how could this happen when key positions in Sweden, including the leadership of parliament's foreign affairs and labor market committees, are held by a party that Israel is boycotting? Israel’s Foreign Ministry said that ties with the Sweden Democrats weren't addressed at the meetings in Stockholm. This may be true, but not because the issue is unimportant but because Israel seems to be well on its way to changing its policy in this area. Ties with Italy’s prime minister, despite her neofascist past, are stronger than ever, Hungary is considered an important ally, and Cohen recently instructed Israel’s ambassador in Romania to meet with the far-right AUR party, hitherto boycotted by Israel due to its antisemitic comments and Holocaust denial.

All this has been done to win support for Israel's settlements in the West Bank. Is there a connection between all these events? The answer can be found in another diplomatic visit. A few days after Cohen’s return from Stockholm, two senior members of the Sweden Democrats, Charlie Weimers and Richard Jomshof, landed in Israel. The visit was supposed to remain under the radar, but word got out that these Swedish far-rightists had met with Israeli lawmakers.

The daily Israel Hayom revealed that among them was Likud MK Amit Halevi, who spoke with his guests about suspending Israel’s boycott of their party. They even handed him a document that was passed higher up. Three months later, Halevi helped change Israel’s policy toward the Romanian AUR party. Another Likud member, former lawmaker Michael Kleiner, also met with the two Swedish legislators. Not surprisingly, Kleiner was a guest of the AUR in Bucharest last November.

All this is confusing: While Israel is officially boycotting the Sweden Democrats, politicians from the party are secretly meeting with members of Israel’s ruling party and undermining its official policy. Of course, the policy on Europe's far right should be weighed carefully, and it may be time to change it, but the impression is that what happened in Romania and is happening in Sweden isn't a result of deliberations by Foreign Ministry professionals but is a snap political move.

And so, it seems that as Israelis are caught up in domestic politics, a small number of Likud activists are changing Israel’s foreign policy. Israel’s democratic and liberal allies are being replaced with nationalist movements, including populist and racist ones, in a move that's a European parallel to what Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich is doing with Israeli-U.S relations. His statements about America’s “preaching” may not have been off the cuff but a reflection of a new policy: exchanging America's traditional bipartisan support and the backing of mainstream forces in Europe for the support of the populist-evangelical camp in the United States and the nationalist-xenophobic wing in Europe.

Beyond the ideological considerations, political and business interests are at play here. In contrast to leaders such as U.S. President Joe Biden and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, who openly protested Israel's judicial overhaul, Swedish Foreign Minister Billström had nothing to say about it. A country that used to see itself as a “humanitarian superpower” and global peacemaker is remaining silent when it comes to Israel’s democracy. This was probably refreshing for Cohen.

Meanwhile, sales of Israeli weapons to Sweden have spiked during the war in Ukraine and the entry of Sweden and Finland into NATO. The governments in Stockholm and Helsinki, both supported by far-right parties, are much more interested in drones, rocket launchers and cyberwarfare than human rights, settlements and judicial overhauls. Even if parts of the Israeli left don't consider this a problem, we should recognize a corollary of this new approach: Israel’s new partners won't save Israel from itself. They are part of governments that are morally blind, deaf and mute.

Maybe the Libyan incident was no mistake. Instead of pursuing a policy of building bridges to Arab states – a way of avoiding the Palestinian issue – Israel is adopting a new international stance and seeking support based on arms deals, natural gas and its cyber prowess, not shared values. This seems logical, because what common values are there anyway? Human rights? Peace? Social justice? That stuff is so '90s.

It’s still not clear if and when Billström will visit Israel, but when this happens, we can be sure that the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and the dangers to Israeli (and Swedish) democracy won't be on the agenda. Instead, when the ministers finish talking business, they can always talk about the weather, the Eurovision Song Contest and the pros and cons in the battle of Swedish meatballs vs. falafel.

Sweden's New FM Says 2014 Palestine Recognition Was 'Premature and Unfortunate’

Sweden’s new foreign minister, Tobias Billström, talks to Haaretz about recalibrating foreign policy, the importance of ties with Israel and the new government's far-right partners

published in "Haaretz": https://www.haaretz.com/world-news/europe/2022-11-22/ty-article/.premium/swedens-new-fm-calls-2014-palestine-recognition-premature-and-unfortunate/00000184-9f0a-d40d-a9ce-bf7f31f60000

STOCKHOLM – Swedish foreign policy has been unique for many years in Europe. The Scandinavian nation hasn’t joined military alliances since it was a military power in the 17th and 18th centuries, and hasn’t been involved in a war for over 200 years (with the exception of occasional peacekeeping missions far away from its borders). In the second half of the 20th century, its policy of avoiding alliances and maintaining wartime neutrality created a foreign policy that in many ways wasn’t about serving Swedish national interests. Instead, it was about becoming a “humanitarian superpower” and endeavoring to make the world a better place.

Naturally, there were those both at home and abroad who criticized this policy. Some saw Sweden’s attempts to position itself on the right side of history as self-serving, opportunistic and hypocritical. Others claimed its private sector’s thriving arms industry was incompatible with a government preaching peace, love and understanding. Another problematic aspect was Sweden’s close ties with a host of dictators and oppressive regimes.

Still, for decades, Swedish diplomats were crucial in bringing wars to a close. Swedish policymakers were generous when it came to humanitarian aid, and vocal when it came to issues like the struggles against apartheid and the Cold War arms race.

This tradition was maintained in recent years as well. As well as being the only Western European country to recognize a Palestinian state, Sweden did its best to export progressive ideas like “feminist foreign policy,” taking radical steps against climate change and building stronger international institutions.

But change is on the horizon. Sweden has taken its first steps to join the NATO military alliance and is building up its military capabilities in a way it hasn’t done for decades due to recent Russian aggression. After voting out the left-wing Social Democrats and electing a center-right government led by the Moderate Party and supported by the far-right Sweden Democrats, what is the future of neutral Sweden?

“Since I took office, I’ve been very clear that we need a recalibration of Swedish foreign policy,” says Sweden’s new foreign minister, Tobias Billström. “We need to make some very clear statements about our priorities. One priority, above anything else, is the NATO accession. With that we also have to think about our neighborhood – the Nordic states, the Baltic states and the countries surrounding the Baltic Sea. This is where we’re putting our emphasis. It’s not a choice between being active in the international arena and being focused on our neighborhood. You can do both. What you can’t do is be everywhere all the time and be active in all aspects. We’ll have to prioritize.”

This may be a seismic change on the national level but it’s not for Billström, who notes that his party “has supported joining NATO for years. And I believe that the question of neutrality ended in 1995 when Sweden became a member of the European Union.”

No Jerusalem embassy yet

Billström, 48, is an experienced politician despite his relatively young age. He has been a parliamentarian for 20 years, serving as migration and asylum policy minister from 2006 to 2014, and was a local politician before that. The role he now holds is one of his country’s most important considering current regional instabilities. He meets Haaretz at his Stockholm office, which is located in a beautiful 18th-century palace facing the Royal Opera House on one side and the Royal Palace and Parliament House on the other. He has just accompanied the king and queen of Sweden on a state visit to Jordan, one of his first on the job. He says he’d like to visit Israel one day and thinks that Sweden’s relationship with Israel is “excellent following the establishment of dialogue in 2021.” Still, no official visit has as yet been planned.

Eight years ago, one of the first steps of the previous government was to recognize a Palestinian state. What is your government’s position on the issue?

“The decision to recognize Palestine in 2014 was premature and unfortunate. However, the decision has been taken and this government doesn’t plan to revoke it.”

But it wasn’t just about recognition. The previous government was very active in this field: it appointed a special envoy to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict; it actively opposed Israeli settlements in the West Bank; and it supported the Palestinian Authority and the two-state solution. Is Sweden’s new government still committed to these policies?

“On the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, the government stands firmly behind the EU policy. We want to see a negotiated two-state solution based on international law. That decision will remain. As for being active, we will continue to criticize the parties when called for, when violations of international law are committed and when human rights are abused. We’ll do that in the same way we criticize other states when it’s justified. This is in no way contrary to having excellent relations with Israel or Palestine. The government will at all times stand up for Israel’s legitimate security needs.”

Would Sweden consider moving its embassy from Tel Aviv to the capital, Jerusalem?

“Like the EU, the government will continue to respect the broad consensus of the international community and relevant UN Security Council resolutions and regard Jerusalem as a final-status issue. Pending a peace agreement, Sweden’s embassy will not be moved.”

Your government plans to cut foreign aid drastically in the next couple of years – will this affect Swedish aid to the Palestinians, and could this lead to a problem with Sweden’s Palestinian partners?

“Sweden’s development cooperation with Palestine, just like the EU’s, ultimately aims to build the conditions and promote a two-state solution in line with international law. This goal will remain. As we review our overall development cooperation, we will also recess our Palestine strategy, which applies to the period of 2020 to 2024.”

What about aid to the Palestinian organizations that the Israeli government claims are terror groups? Or aid to the UN Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees, which allegedly publishes schoolbooks containing antisemitic incitement?

“The government takes terrorist accusations very seriously and several of these civil society organizations – which were listed by Israel as terror groups in October 2021 – receive support from the EU, the United Nations, Sweden and other donors. Together, the donors within the EU followed up thoroughly on the allegations and concluded that no substantial evidence was provided. The donors will therefore continue to support Palestinian civil society. We believe that a free and strong civil society is indispensable for promoting democratic values and the two-state solution. Needless to say, if Israel makes convincing evidence available that would justify a review in the policy toward these organizations, we would act accordingly.

“When it comes to antisemitism, it is of course unacceptable and it’s very important that the PA ensures that its textbooks fully meet UNESCO standards, and that the EU continues to be clear in its dialogue with the Palestinians to ensure that this is the case.”

Israel’s new government will be led by former Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Are you confident that Israeli-Swedish relations, which have recently improved under another government, won’t deteriorate again under the new one?

“As Sweden’s foreign minister, I would like to see a good dialogue with countries we think we can maintain good relations with. The question of relations between Sweden and Israel is exactly about that: to have a dialogue on issues that we might disagree on – but we think it’s still a good thing to sit and talk about them.

“It’s not up to me as foreign minister of Sweden to say anything about Israel’s domestic policy. The people of Israel have a right to elect their government, just as the Swedish people have a right to elect our government. The important thing is to understand that in Sweden we cherish dialogue and would like to see it maintained.”

Just over a year ago, Israel’s ambassador to Sweden said Israel will not have any contacts with the populist Sweden Democrats party. Since then, it has become the closest and most important political supporter of your government. Will it influence Sweden’s foreign policy? And do you think Israel should have ties with it?

“It’s up to the Israeli government through its ambassador here in Sweden to choose with whom it wants to talk. As foreign minister, the case is very clear: the Swedish constitution says that foreign policy is shaped by the government, which keeps parliament informed. This means that since the Sweden Democrats are not part of the government, their influence is limited to exactly that – namely, parliamentary control, just like all the other parties represented in the Swedish parliament.”

A personal Holocaust story

As well as relations with Israel and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, another Swedish policy to draw attention during the previous government’s term was the one concerning antisemitism and Holocaust remembrance.

For over 20 years, since a Swedish initiative started the International Holocaust Remembrance Alliance in 1998, Sweden has been considered a world leader in this field. Last year, the government organized a major international conference in Malmö dedicated to Holocaust remembrance and combating antisemitism. It also decided to open a new Holocaust Museum and accept the IHRA definition of antisemitism and its examples (which some have slammed for equating criticism of Israel with antisemitism).

When asked if his government is just as committed to combating antisemitism and preserving the memory of the Holocaust, Billström says: “Certainly! Combating antisemitism is very important and the new government is fully committed to doing so.”

Since Sweden is still struggling with many instances of antisemitism in schools, in some Muslim environments and in far-right circles, Billström knows the problem is still unresolved. “I will always be a very strong advocate against antisemitism,” he says. “We are working very closely with Israel on this. I appreciate the very fruitful cooperation with Israel during the IHRA presidency, and we’re looking forward to continuing the cooperation during Israel’s presidency in 2025.

“I would also like to make a personal remark on this,” he adds. “My grandparents in Malmö took in a Jewish family that escaped from Denmark across the Öresund strait, during the period in 1943 when the Gestapo tried to round up the Jews. I grew up with this story. I have this very nice diploma that says two trees were planted in their memory in Tzippori [in northern Israel] as thanks from this family. My grandmother and my mother, who remembers playing with the kids of this family, told me this story, and it has left a deep mark on me leading to my understanding of what the Jews and what Denmark went through.

“I’ve always believed that antisemitism is a horrible thing. When the Jewish burial chapel in Malmö was attacked during my time as migration minister [in 2009], I went there for the inauguration of the restored chapel and talked about my family’s story in my speech. For me, it’s obvious that there are examples of antisemitism in Swedish society that should be condemned, and it’s obvious there are people in our society who have not laid off the horrible idea that there are grounds for antisemitic persecution of people of Jewish origin in our society. That should always be combated – in schools, at workplaces, wherever we find it. As foreign minister of Sweden, this is something I have a very firm conviction about.”

What about the Sweden Democrats? Besides their past as a neo-Nazi party and many extremely problematic antisemitic opinions voiced by some of their leaders, the biggest party supporting your government supports various laws that could be problematic for Sweden’s Jewish community – such as forbidding circumcision and banning the importation of kosher meat. Are you sure your partnership with them won’t be part of the problem rather than part of the solution?

“I have to say that although there is certainly room for political debate concerning those aspects, as foreign minister it’s clear that the constitution limits their parliamentary influence. As to other issues you mentioned, they belong to areas under the influence of other ministers and I think that, again, under the limits of the constitution I shouldn’t be addressing them.”

One issue Billström is willing to address is Swedish-Iranian relations, which have been tense lately. A Swedish court recently sentenced an Iranian official, Hamid Nouri, to life in prison for war crimes committed in Iran in 1988. There are also two Iranian-born Swedes standing trial in Stockholm after allegedly spying for Russia, while Swedish nationals are also being held in Iran. The recent domestic demonstrations against the Iranian regime make it even harder for Sweden to maintain business as usual with the Islamic republic.

When asked if these events will bring about a change of Swedish policy toward Iran, Billström makes the Swedish position clear. He says that since Sweden has an independent judiciary, there is no government influence on verdicts in Swedish courts. This may be seen as a signal to Tehran about the government’s policy concerning the complicated court cases in both countries.

However, when it comes to the political arena, things are easier to act upon. “As we see it, there is no movement on the Iran nuclear deal,” Billström says. “But the developments in Iran are a source of great worry for Sweden, which also has a considerable Iranian diaspora. The violence directed against peaceful demonstrators is horrible. I had direct communication with the foreign minister of Iran a few days ago, and I was very frank about the way the Swedish government feels about this – we believe people shouldn’t be persecuted and that the use of the death penalty is absolutely unacceptable in every regard. However, we still feel there’s room for dialogue with the Iranian government on this – and the only way to influence them is by dialogue.

“We are also very clear that individuals who have participated in the persecution of demonstrators, and also those who have been involved in the sale of drones to Russia to be used in the war in Ukraine, should face sanctions. It’s very worrying that Iran is turning in this direction.”

Another Middle Eastern leader Billström’s government is dealing with is Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson met him in Ankara earlier this month, in a bid to get Turkey to ease its objections to Sweden’s NATO accession.

“There is a trilateral memorandum signed by Sweden, Finland and Turkey,” says Billström, explaining the current state of affairs. “The memorandum has conditions that have to be fulfilled and will pave the way for the Turkish parliament to ratify Sweden and Finland’s accession to NATO. The visit to Ankara was good; I think it was a fruitful dialogue.”

It seems there are items on the Turkish president’s agenda – some domestic, others foreign – that are still causing him to block Sweden’s NATO ambitions. Billström thinks it is now time for the “relevant authorities in all three countries” to get to work, but doesn’t specify what the problematic issues are or when he thinks the process will be completed. “Because there are certain issues that have to be dealt with,” he concludes, “I don’t want to set a time frame. Because it’s not helpful to do that.”

Sweden and Finland to join NATO due to Russian Threat

This is how the debate in Sweden changed, leading to the announcement Monday the country will join Finland in seeking NATO membership

Published in Haaretz: https://www.haaretz.com/world-news/europe/2022-05-16/ty-article-magazine/.premium/fear-won-in-swedens-battle-between-neutrality-and-the-russian-threat/00000180-e9f4-d189-af82-f9fd10820000

STOCKHOLM – Until a few months ago, nobody would have bet on Finland and Sweden joining NATO at all, much less doing so at lightning speed. Public opinion opposed the idea, as did both countries’ political establishments; neither country’s political system was built for rapid decisions on defense affairs; and most importantly, both countries had a decades-old tradition of avoiding military alliances. In Sweden’s case, this was an ideological approach. The last time Sweden was involved in a war was in 1814. Throughout the 20th century, it tried to position itself as a humanitarian superpower that, instead of taking sides in wars, tried to mediate between the parties, while also supporting international institutions, mediating conflicts and taking in refugees. Thus, it ostensibly remained neutral in World War II and nonaligned during the Cold War.

In Finland’s case, its neutrality stemmed from fear of the superpower next door. Finland shares a border with Russia that is more than 1,300 kilometers long. It was once part of the Russian Empire, fought against the Soviet Union during World War II and was threatened by Moscow during the Cold War. The last thing it wanted after the Soviet Union fell apart was to get involved in a new conflict with the Russians. But then Russia invaded Ukraine, and both countries’ unalignment policies melted away.

Finland and Sweden were always completely Western in their orientation. And practically speaking, it’s an open secret that they have been cooperating with NATO for years. But Russia’s invasion of Ukraine revealed a flaw – if Ukraine could be ruthlessly attacked by Russia while the world settled for economic sanctions and condemnations, who would protect Sweden and Finland? After all, just like Ukraine, they are independent countries that aren’t under the protection of the NATO alliance, and particularly the treaty’s Article 5 which states that an attack against one NATO country is considered as an attack against them all.

Consequently, the invasion of Ukraine produced a turnaround in Finnish and Swedish public opinion. Immediately after the invasion began, polls published in both countries showed that for the first time in history, there was widespread public support for joining NATO.

In Finland, 50,000 people signed a petition to join the alliance, and parliament began feverish discussions that culminated with Prime Minister Sanna Marin and President Sauli Niinisto saying in a joint statement that “Finland must apply for NATO membership without delay.” To enable the implementation of this decision, parliament will hold a vote on the issue in the coming days.

Sweden isn’t lagging far behind. Defense Minister Peter Hultqvist, who asserted in the past that “As long as I’m defense minister, I can promise that we won’t join” NATO, told Sweden’s national broadcaster last week that “Nordic mutual defense will be strengthened if Sweden and Finland join.” Explaining why he changed his position, he said, “There’s before February 24 and after February 24,” referring to the date when Russia invaded Ukraine.

Over the weekend, a parliamentary committee submitted a report about the worsening of Sweden’s security situation following the invasion of Ukraine. Many saw this as further support for those who advocate joining NATO. The ruling Social Democratic Party announced on Sunday that it had changed its position and would support joining NATO, and took the formal decision to apply on Monday after a debate in parliament.

“In Finland, the question of joining NATO was always a practical one, but in Sweden, it’s a more sensitive subject,” says Hans Wallmark, a veteran Swedish parliamentarian from the center-right Moderate Party who has supported joining NATO for years. “For part of the left, not being a member of NATO was almost a religious position, so for some politicians, supporting joining NATO is like converting to another religion. Therefore, it’s difficult and painful.

“When Russia invaded Ukraine and the Finns began their joining process, the Swedish Social Democratic Party was more or less pushed into the process,” adds Wallmark, who is deputy chairman of parliament’s Committee on Foreign Affairs. Nevertheless, he said, Sweden shouldn’t join NATO just because it’s forced into it, but because it’s the right thing to do.

“There are three reasons why Sweden should join NATO,” he continues. “First of all, there’s Article 5 of NATO’s treaty, with its principle of ‘one for all and all for one.’ Second, there’s a need for joint defense planning with other countries in the region, and third, this is an issue of solidarity with European and North American countries.”

Deterrent power against Russia

On the other side of the Baltic Sea, Jouni Ovaska, a member of Finland’s parliament representing the Center Party since 2019, made many of the same points as his Swedish colleague. As a member of his parliament’s Foreign Affairs Committee, he is also involved in the parliamentary proceedings to enable Finland’s membership bid. “Membership in NATO will guarantee Finland’s security, because of the alliance’s substantial deterrent power,” he says. “And of course, the most important thing is Article 5 of the treaty. ”Nevertheless, he says, Finland must continue investing in its own military and training its soldiers, just as it has until now, and continue cultivating its other international partnerships.

“The European Union is our main partner, and most European countries are NATO members,” he notes. “I hope joining will strengthen European countries so that they can take care of defense on their own. Sweden is our closest partner, and if it, like all the Nordic countries, becomes a NATO member, this will provide greater security for the entire region.” Ovaska says the Finns have moved very swiftly to join NATO. “February 24 changed everything,” he says. “We have cooperated with Russia in the past, but the invasion of Ukraine showed that we can’t trust it. That’s why we rethought the situation. Public opinion changed very quickly, more quickly than change happened among elected officials.” He says the change in public opinion stemmed directly from the war in Ukraine: “What was done to Ukraine dredged up memories from the past. It’s not like something from the 21st century, it reminds us of atrocities from many years ago, and we have to make a change.”

However, there are some who oppose joining the military alliance. The Swedish Green Party, for example, argues that Sweden should be an independent power that promotes democracy and peace in the world, not part of a military alliance that possesses and bases its power on nuclear weapons. According to the Left Party, Sweden will defend itself better if it adheres to the policy of refraining from military alliances, which it says has served the country well for many generations.

The two parties that oppose joining NATO have a total of just over 40 seats out of 349 in the Swedish parliament. In Finland, opposition to the move is even smaller, and at this point is heard only on the fringes. Therefore, it seems that Sweden and Finland’s rush into NATO is inevitable, although the process itself is not short. “After the official request is submitted to Jen Stoltenberg, the NATO secretary general, in Brussels, Sweden and Finland will enter what is called the Membership Action Plan,” Prof. Ann-Sofie Dahl explains.

Dahl, who lives in Denmark and serves as a senior fellow in the Atlantic Council in Washington, D.C., has written extensively about the NATO alliance. “Usually this is a process that takes a long time, but Sweden and Finland are very close to NATO, so that this time it will be just a formal process that will probably take only a day or two,” she says, explaining that the initial process will be followed by the ratification process.

“They will also try to accelerate this step, but because there is a need for the approval of the parliaments of the 30 member countries, it will probably take at least four to six months until the formal membership of the two countries goes into effect,” Dahl says. Naturally, in both Sweden and Finland there is some concern regarding the interim period between their decision and the validity of membership. Dahl note the guarantees of security that have been obtained in recent months. “British Prime Minister Boris Johnson visited Sweden and Finland this month and declared that the United Kingdom will guarantee the security of the two countries,” Dahl says. “

That is a very important declaration, because Britain is an important player as well as a nuclear power,” she notes, adding that there is apparently a less official, and less overt, commitment from the White House. It is known that the Finnish president has met in Washington with President Joe Biden, and the Swedish foreign minister recently also held meetings in the U.S. capital. In addition, Swedish Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson and Finnish Prime Minister Sanna Marin visited Berlin and received a promise from Chancellor Olaf Scholz that their countries “can rely on German support if they submit a request for NATO membership.”

“I think that after the decision to join NATO – and certainly from the moment the candidacy is submitted – we’ll see a lot of ‘Russian noise,’ but not a military assault,” says Dahl. “We may see things such as a cyberattack or an attack of disinformation, but Moscow is busy in Ukraine and probably, as happened during the previous NATO expansion process, Russia will make a lot of noise – but will then continue as usual.”

Wallmark, the deputy chairman of the Swedish parliament’s Foreign Affairs Committee, is also aware of the anticipated saber-rattling by Moscow. However, he anticipates that “the Kremlin will bark, but nothing more than that.” His Finnish colleague, Ovaska, finds it difficult to say what the Russian reaction will be. “We’re ready to make decisions and we’re ready for anything that happens because of them,” he says. “But it’s important to remember that even when we’re part of NATO, Russia will remain our neighbor. It’s important that in future, in some way, we find a way to cooperate with them.”

Will Putin's Ukraine War Push His Neighbors Into NATO's Hands?

Since the invasion of Ukraine, even traditionally dovish Social Democrats are beginning to change their minds, as seen in historic polls showing that about half of Swedes and Finns want their country to join the alliance

Published in Haaretz: https://www.haaretz.com/world-news/europe/.premium-putin-ukraine-s-war-could-push-his-neighbors-into-nato-s-hands-1.10668900

STOCKHOLM – NATO membership has been a controversial issue in Sweden and Finland since the alliance’s founding in 1949, but the two countries’ traditions of nonalignment are so strong that they’re staying out for now, despite Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.  

The end of the Cold War saw 14 new members join NATO, bringing the roster to 30, but without these two Nordic countries. For Sweden, the main reason for staying out has been its long-standing policy of nonalignment and neutrality. For Finland, it has largely been concern about the way its Russian neighbor would interpret such a step. Thus, while the other Nordic countries –  Denmark, Norway and Iceland – are full NATO members, Sweden and Finland have been cooperating with the alliance for years without actually joining. But then came Russia’s onslaught on Ukraine.

According to surveys conducted after the invasion, about half of Swedes are in favor of joining NATO – a record for the country, and up from 37 percent last summer and 32 percent in 2017. Other studies show that more and more Swedes are concerned about a possible Russian attack. In Finland, a petition signed by over 50,000 people calls for a referendum on NATO membership, a subject discussed in parliament last week. A poll by Finland’s public broadcaster early in Russia’s invasion showed that a record 53 percent of Finns support full NATO membership. In 2017 this number was only 19 percent.

In Helsinki last weekend, Swedish Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson and her Finnish counterpart, Sanna Marin, discussed defense policy and cooperation while keeping the NATO issue vague. Marin said that it’s “very understandable that the mindset of our citizens is changing due to Russia’s attack against Ukraine,” adding that Finland’s political parties would now be delving into the issue. Andersson agreed and added that “the security situation has altered in a dramatic way, and of course this will be discussed both in Finland and in Sweden.” In the current crisis, officials from both countries have spoken with U.S. President Joe Biden on their close cooperation with the United States.

“Historically, in both countries, nonalignment has been a long tradition, especially in Sweden, which was ‘neutral’ during World War II, though it was of course helping the Germans,” says Ann-Sofie Dahl, an associate professor in international relations and a nonresident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council in Washington. “Sweden clung to nonalignment during the Cold War as mostly a political and ideological tool for the ruling Social Democrats, who have a romantic view of Sweden playing a role in global politics as a neutral country,” Dahl says. “But this was a two-sided doctrine because it was combined with top secret cooperation with NATO during the Cold War.”

Getting closer

In the Finnish case it’s more of a security matter. “Finland has a very long border with Russia and they’ve also been part of the Russian Empire, which puts them in Putin’s sphere of interest. The Finns have also fought against the Russians [during World War II], which means that the Russians respect them. So, although Sweden and Finland both have nonalignment security doctrines, they have very different historical backgrounds.”

In 1994, Sweden and Finland were among the first to join the Partnership for Peace, NATO’s nonmember partnership program. But unlike Poland, Hungary and the Baltic states, they have not joined NATO. In 2014, with the first Russian invasion of Ukraine, Sweden and Finland became part of the Enhanced Opportunity Partnership, a small group of the alliance’s closest partners that now includes Ukraine.

“This means Sweden and Finland are part of NATO military exercises and various forms of communications and training. Now, because of the war, Sweden and Finland are even closer to NATO, and they’re participating in its discussions on the Ukraine crisis,” Dahl says. “This is a historic moment; we have never seen discussions like this before. Domestically in both countries, some center-right parties have supported joining NATO for years, others have recently joined, but now even some Social Democratic voices are moving towards accepting the idea of NATO membership. In Sweden this means a possible ideological U-turn for traditional supporters of nonalignment, while in Finland, the Social Democrats seem to be one step ahead because of a more pragmatic approach in these matters.”  

Exposed and vulnerable

Swedes and Finns who are now changing their minds about NATO membership have a clear understanding of its benefits. It’s all about Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty. That clause, sometimes called the “Three Musketeer article,” commits each NATO member to consider an attack on another member an attack on it. As in the Alexandre Dumas novel, it’s “all for one and one for all.”
“People in Sweden and Finland are afraid of what’s happening in Ukraine, which isn’t very far from them. They realize that they’re outside NATO, which means that like Ukraine, they’re exposed and vulnerable, particularly Sweden, which still has a very weak military and is seen as the most vulnerable part of the Baltic,” Dahl says. “We have a president in Moscow who is obviously unstable and ready to invade a neighboring country. Russia has been provoking Sweden with fighter jets entering its airspace. People are aware of this and of course they’re scared.”

Still, on Tuesday, Prime Minister Andersson said that a Swedish application for NATO membership was not on the table at the moment, adding that such a move would further destabilize the situation in Europe. Sweden prefers to strengthen its ties with Finland and the United States, cooperate with NATO as a nonmember partner and work within the EU framework to support Ukraine.
Finland doesn’t seem like it will be joining NATO in the immediate future either. “The Finnish position is that we are at the beginning of a process,” says Maimo Henriksson, a senior Foreign Ministry official who headed the Eastern department and is now ambassador to Sweden. “The security situation has changed in our neighborhood, which means there are more reasons to analyze and discuss the situation and its implications. Joining NATO is one option, but it’s not self-evident that we’ll land there.”

Henriksson says a political debate has been launched in Finland that includes policy papers, parliamentary debates and discussions among the parties. “It’s an open issue, it should be handled efficiently but with care, and it’s not clear what the end result will be,” she says, adding that Finland has constantly been talking with the Russians throughout the years, but not over the last few weeks. The Finnish people, shocked like so many people around the world,  have shown strong support for Ukraine. Regarding Sweden, Henriksson says that “both countries wish to go hand in hand when it comes to the decision about NATO. But of course, there are no guarantees since both countries have their individual national processes, and decisions will be made on the basis of national interest.”